India’s 604-million-tonne steel ambition: the real test is what it will take to get there

 

THE 2047 ROADMAP

India’s 604-million-tonne steel ambition: the real test is what it will take to get there

A draft policy sets out a huge expansion plan. Coal imports, transport bottlenecks and the cost of cleaner production will shape whether it can be delivered.

By Murthy ASR  |  Biz Masala  |  11 October 2026

Steelmaking is capital-intensive, energy-intensive and tightly linked to logistics. Generated editorial illustration; no specific plant or company is depicted.

India wants to nearly triple its steelmaking capacity by 2047. The Ministry of Steel’s draft National Steel Policy — Vision 2047 envisages capacity rising to 604 million tonnes, crude steel production reaching 531 million tonnes and finished steel consumption reaching 505 million tonnes. [1]

Those numbers describe a long-term ambition, not a construction schedule. The projections assume average annual GDP growth of around 7 per cent and plant utilisation of 88 per cent. Utilisation stood at 77 per cent in 2025, according to the draft. Bridging that gap is one early test of the plan. [1]

The coal dependence problem

Steel expansion will require far more than new furnaces. The draft projects iron-ore requirements rising from 299 million tonnes in 2025 to 772 million tonnes by 2047. Coking-coal demand is projected to climb from 72 million tonnes to 236 million tonnes.

 

That second figure points to a vulnerability. India imports nearly 92 per cent of its coking coal, the draft says, leaving steelmakers exposed to overseas prices, shipping costs and supply disruptions. Raw materials account for an estimated 65–70 per cent of steelmaking costs. [1]

The policy proposes diversifying coal sources, expanding domestic mining and coal-washing capacity, and securing overseas assets and long-term supply arrangements. These measures could help reduce supply risk, but they would take investment, time and dependable logistics. The steel ambition is also a test of whether India can make industrial growth less exposed to imported fuel.

Input / metric	2025 baseline	2047 draft projection
Iron-ore requirement	299 million tonnes	772 million tonnes
Coking-coal demand	72 million tonnes	236 million tonnes
Coking-coal import dependence	Nearly 92%	Policy seeks to reduce exposure

Moving minerals is part of the manufacturing plan

The draft also points to transport as a constraint. It proposes expanding iron-ore slurry-pipeline capacity from about 18 million tonnes a year to more than 299 million tonnes by 2047. Pipelines could reduce reliance on road and rail for some mineral movement, but the policy flags hurdles including clearances, land acquisition, local opposition and water-related concerns. [1]

Iron ore, coal and steel all depend on reliable transport links. Generated illustration of an industrial logistics chain; no specific port or railway is depicted.

New production capacity will be useful only if raw materials can reach plants reliably and finished steel can reach construction sites, factories and export markets at a competitive cost.

 

Can growth and emissions targets move together?

The draft aims to reduce average carbon emissions intensity from 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel to 1.54 tonnes by 2047—a proposed reduction of about 39 per cent. At the same time, it projects steel production more than tripling, from 170 million tonnes in 2025 to 531 million tonnes. [1]

Selected draft baselines and 2047–48 targets. Bar lengths are scaled within each measure; this is not a cross-measure comparison. Values are policy projections, not confirmed projects. [1]

The proposed response includes improving energy efficiency, increasing renewable electricity use, expanding scrap-based steelmaking and, over time, adopting technologies such as green-hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and carbon capture.

Scrap supply will matter. The draft projects steel-scrap availability increasing from 36 million tonnes in 2025–26 to 123 million tonnes by 2047–48. It proposes a national collection drive covering household goods, construction and demolition waste, industrial assets and end-of-life vehicles. That will require a much more organised system for collecting, sorting and processing scrap. [1]

Scrap recovery and cleaner steelmaking are part of the proposed transition. Generated editorial illustration; no specific facility is shown.

 

The business question

For companies, the opportunity could extend well beyond steel producers. Mining, coal washing, recycling, rail and port logistics, pipelines, renewable power and specialist manufacturing may all be affected if the roadmap translates into projects and investment.

But the draft’s targets should not yet be read as confirmed projects or guaranteed business. The Ministry of Steel has invited comments on the policy until 30 October 2026. The more revealing test will be how the final policy addresses financing, project approvals, raw-material security and the cost of cleaner technology. [2]

BIZ MASALA VIEW India’s steel ambition is easy to express in one large number: 604 million tonnes. Delivery will depend on a longer chain—from mines and imported coal to transport, recycling and emissions cuts—working together. The final policy’s credibility will rest on sequencing, financing and measurable execution.

Sources & reporting notes

[1] Ministry of Steel, Draft National Steel Policy — Vision 2047. The targets and assumptions described here are proposals in a draft policy.  Open source

[2] Business Standard, “Draft steel policy targets 604 MT capacity by 2047, higher ore need,” 11 October 2026.  Open source

Murthy ASR

Biz Masala