NextDC Cuts Outlook as Melbourne Data-Centre Expansion Hits Power Delays

 

GLOBAL WATCH  /  AUSTRALIA  /  DATA-CENTRE INFRASTRUCTURE

Power-network work delays push the next planned increase in supply to M3 Melbourne into FY28 and prompt a reset of the company’s FY27 guidance.

Illustration created for Biz Masala. It does not depict the actual NEXTDC M3 facility.

MELBOURNE, October 21, 2026 — Australian data-centre operator NextDC cut its FY27 financial guidance after delays to electricity-network works postponed a planned increase in power supply to its M3 Melbourne facility. The company said the next increase in grid supply is now expected in FY28, delaying the delivery and billing of contracted capacity.

The disruption follows electricity distributor Jemena suspending parts of the required network works amid community and stakeholder opposition. NextDC said about A$140 million in contracted customer revenue would be deferred from the current financial year. Its shares closed down 41.7%, wiping about A$3 billion from its market value, according to Reuters.

Guidance reset

FY27 measure

Previous guidance

Revised guidance

Net revenue

A$615–640 million

A$475–500 million

Underlying EBITDA

A$385–410 million

A$245–265 million

Capital expenditure

A$5.25–5.75 billion

A$4.5–5.0 billion

Data note: Revenue and EBITDA revisions exclude the affected M3 contracts. They are not like-for-like comparisons. Capital expenditure guidance is also revised.

Bars show arithmetic midpoints of the published guidance ranges, not actual results. Revised revenue and EBITDA ranges exclude affected M3 contracts.

The infrastructure risk behind the revision

The case shows how data-centre growth depends on securing power and completing network works, as well as on planning approvals and community acceptance. NextDC has also put new development projects and land acquisitions on hold for the foreseeable future while it reviews its spending plans.

What to watch: resumption of the network works, timing of the power increase, and the state’s planning decision on the next expansion stages. The M3 delay is a significant setback for this company and project; by itself, it does not establish that demand for AI or data-centre capacity is falling across the industry.

SOURCES

NEXTDC ASX announcement, M3 Melbourne power delay and revised FY27 guidance: https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/nxt/announcements/m3-melbourne-power-delay-revised-fy27-guidance-2A1705181

Reuters, October 21, 2026 market reaction and deferred contracted revenue: https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/australian-ai-data-centre-operator-nextdc-shares-shed-42-revenue-delay-future-plans

ABC News, October 21, 2026 project and community context: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-21/west-footscray-data-centre-delays-nextdc-value-asx-vic/107291744

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